Operations · Halden & Rowe
Two disciplines, read side by side.
Loss prevention on the left of the room, supply continuity on the right — what the tills and the suppliers are telling us this week.
Loss prevention
What the tills are telling us.
Voids, overrings, no-sales and refusals across the estate, with the exceptions concentrated by till, user and time of day.
Voids
312
up 24 vs last week
Concentrated on Basingstoke tills 3 and 4 between 16:00–19:00.
Overrings
94
up 11 vs last week
One cashier at Guildford accounts for 38% of the week's overrings.
No-sale opens
218
up 6 vs last week
Elevated at Manchester Arndale outside handover windows.
Refusals
47
flat vs last week
Age-restricted lines behaving to policy across the estate.
Exceptions by till
3 tills flagged
unchanged
Basingstoke 3, Basingstoke 4, Guildford 2 sit outside the band.
Exceptions by user
5 users flagged
up 1 vs last week
One tier-two supervisor now inside the review band.
Exceptions by time
Late trade heavy
up 8 pts vs last week
62% of flagged exceptions land after 17:00.
Stock-count variance
£38k
up £6k vs last count
Womenswear denim carrying the majority of the variance.
Predicted
Shrink-risk score
Elevated · 3 tills
A composite reading across void depth, overring frequency, no-sale rate and time-of-day pattern. Three tills sit outside the estate band this week.
Void depth and late-trade no-sales driving the reading.
Overring pattern concentrated in a single 90-minute window.
One cashier accounts for the majority of the reading.
Predicted
Predicted stock-count variance
£46k · next scheduled count
Projected variance for the 12 August cycle count using the current exception profile and this quarter's variance-to-exception ratio.
Elevated void depth in the size 10 and 12 bands.
High no-sale rate at Basingstoke between 17:00–19:00.
Refusal-adjacent line running above estate variance.
Residual across the remainder of the range.
Ana's reading
Loss prevention is not out of tolerance, but the shape of the exceptions this week is worth attention. Voids and overrings are both up, and the pattern concentrates in late-trade windows at two Basingstoke tills.
If the current exception profile holds, the next scheduled cycle count on 12 August projects a £46k variance — around £8k above the running twelve-week average. The two Basingstoke tills and one Guildford cashier account for the majority of the projected exposure.
Executive actions
Review Basingstoke late-trade rota
Shift supervisor coverage into the 16:00–19:00 window on tills 3 and 4 and rerun the exception readings for one full week.
Store Operations Manager · this week
Coach Guildford supervisor
Overring pattern concentrated with one supervisor; run the standard coaching conversation on file and log the outcome.
Regional Operations Manager · next 14 days
Bring 12 August count forward for denim
Womenswear denim variance is projected at £19k; a focused count on 8 August tightens the position before the Bank Holiday trading period.
Loss Prevention Lead · next 7 days
Supply continuity
What the suppliers are telling us.
Delivery reliability and lead-time drift across the supplier base, with the inbound commitments most exposed to the current pattern.
On-time delivery
92.4%
down 1.3 pts vs last month
Within tolerance overall; two tier-two suppliers pulling the average down.
Lead-time drift
+1.4 days
up 0.4 days vs last month
Concentrated in the same two tier-two suppliers.
Suppliers on watch
2 of 47
unchanged
One womenswear tier-two, one outdoor tier-two.
Late deliveries this week
9
up 2 vs last week
Six from the same tier-two supplier; three weather-related.
Inbound flow
On plan
flat
No congestion at the primary gateway this week.
Continuity rehearsal
Current
quarterly review complete
Fallback routing options confirmed on file.
Supplier reliability
On-time performance and lead-time drift by supplier.
Predicted
Predicted delivery-delay risk
2 suppliers · next 14 days
A supplier-level reading combining current lead-time drift, historical on-time rate and the volume of inbound commitments landing in the next fortnight.
Drift widening ahead of the womenswear Bank Holiday drop.
Two outbound consignments already tracking behind schedule.
Well inside tolerance; monitored only for completeness.
Ana's reading
The supply position is holding across most of the estate. Tier-one suppliers are inside the reliability band and inbound flow is on plan.
Two tier-two suppliers — Northfield Mills and Ridgeway Outdoor — are drifting, and between them they carry £490k of inbound commitment over the next fortnight. If the drift continues, the womenswear Bank Holiday drop is the first commitment at risk.
Executive actions
Escalate Northfield Mills drift
Contact the account manager, confirm the Bank Holiday consignment date, and log the response before Thursday close.
Supply Chain Director · this week
Qualify a Ridgeway alternative
One tier-two alternative is qualified on file; move it to trial-order stage to protect autumn outdoor commitment.
Buying Director · next 30 days
Rehearse fallback routing
Continuity plan is current; brief the trading team so the Bank Holiday fallback is ready to activate without a further meeting.
Supply Chain Director · this month
Targets
The bands that turn a reading into a flag.
Change a value inline; the exception and watch lists above use the current setting on their next reading.
Per till, per store
Exception-rate band
A till drifting above this band for two consecutive weeks moves into the review queue.
Per supplier
Lead-time drift tolerance
A supplier drifting beyond this tolerance for two consecutive weeks moves onto the supplier watch list.