Inventory · Halden & Rowe
Cover is healthy overall, with outdoor overhanging into autumn.
Availability holds above target across womenswear and menswear. Outdoor and garden are running four weeks over cover and are the single largest working-capital lever this quarter.
Outdoor overhang is the only material risk to the inventory position.
Metrics
Inventory at a glance
The readings a retailer would look at first.
Availability
96.4%
up 0.3 pts vs last week
Above target band across every category except loyalty exclusives.
Weeks of cover
12.4
up 0.6 vs last week
Category target is 10.5 weeks; outdoor is at 16.8.
Overstock
£3.9m
up £180k vs last week
Outdoor and garden account for 71% of the overstock position.
Stockouts
142 lines
down 18 vs last week
Concentrated in womenswear denim sizes 8 and 10.
Dead stock
£620k
flat vs last week
Ageing above 26 weeks; scheduled for October clearance.
Slow movers
412 lines
up 9 vs last week
Menswear tailoring showing early softness.
Fast movers
78 lines
up 6 vs last week
Loyalty exclusives leading; consider replen buys.
Inventory age
72 days
up 2 days vs last week
Within tolerance; outdoor is skewing the average.
Summary
Inventory summary
Ana's editorial reading of the discipline this week.
Inventory is in a healthy position for the trading week. Availability sits above target, stockouts are declining, and fast-moving lines are gaining ground week on week.
The one clear risk is outdoor and garden, where cover is now four weeks above the category target. Left untouched into August, this reduces the working capital available for the autumn buy window and increases the likelihood of margin-eroding clearance.
Visual evidence
How the inventory position is developing
Six charts, one commercial story.
Working capital
Inventory value is running ahead of plan
Portfolio inventory value, weekly, £m.
Source · Commercial Intelligence · Inventory facts
What this shows
The blue line is inventory on hand. The dashed line is the plan.
Why it matters
The gap has been widening for four weeks — this is where the cash pressure is coming from.
Ageing
Outdoor carries the ageing exposure
Inventory value by category and age band, £m.
Source · Inventory ageing snapshot
What this shows
How each category's inventory value splits across four age bands.
Why it matters
Outdoor is the only category with material stock past 90 days — this is where markdown reserve is likely to fall.
Cover shape
Most SKUs sit inside a healthy cover window
SKU count by weeks-cover band.
Source · Inventory Explorer
What this shows
How many SKUs sit in each cover band — understock, healthy, elevated, overstock.
Why it matters
The healthy band is still the largest, but overstock is now the second biggest band. That is the shape to reverse.
Concentration
Working capital sits disproportionately in Outdoor
Inventory value by category, £m.
Source · Inventory position
What this shows
Total inventory value carried by each category.
Why it matters
Outdoor holds more capital than Womenswear despite trading a smaller share of revenue.
Sell-through
Sell-through is improving but still below plan
Weekly sell-through rate, portfolio.
Source · Sales facts
What this shows
Portfolio sell-through against the weekly plan.
Why it matters
The trend is upward, but the gap is closing slowly — not fast enough to unwind Outdoor stock organically.
Supplier
Weber is the single largest supplier exposure
Inventory value by supplier, £m.
Source · Supplier ledger
What this shows
How much inventory value is committed to each key supplier.
Why it matters
Weber concentration matters when any Outdoor conversation reaches into range depth or promotional mechanics.
Category health
Category health at a glance
One row per category, five commercial readings.
Source · Inventory Intelligence read model
Forecast
Where inventory is heading
The forward reading that used to live on its own page. Sales confidence and cash position now sit on Home.
Sales on plan; margin and Q3 cash are the exposed positions.
Demand forecast
1.02× plan
up 0.4 pts vs last week
Weather-adjusted; consumer confidence supportive.
Sales forecast
£152m
in line with plan
Ireland ahead, UK flat.
Margin forecast
40.6%
down 1.4 pts vs plan
Womenswear promotion depth is the largest single driver.
Cash forecast
£11.2m in Q3
£1.8m below plan
Working capital tied up in outdoor overhang; tightest week is 12 September.
Weather impact
Neutral
cooler week ahead
Supportive for autumn transition; unhelpful for garden clearance.
Calendar impact
Positive
Bank Holiday weekend
Loyalty double-points event lands 24–26 August.
Economic drivers
Softening
confidence down 2 pts
Consumer confidence easing in the mid-market band.
Consumer trends
Toward value
loyalty basket up 3.1%
Members trading down in womenswear; up in home.
Sales are on plan for the full year and demand is holding within tolerance. The tone of the forecast is not sales; it is margin and cash.
Womenswear promotion depth and outdoor cost inflation together account for the 1.4 point margin softness. Q3 cash is the sharper number: £1.8m below plan, with the tightest week landing on 12 September.
Visual evidence
How the forecast is developing
Four commercial readings behind the current inventory position.
Sales
Sales are tracking plan within tolerance
Weekly sales, actual against plan, £m.
Source · Sales facts · Forecast v42
What this shows
Actual weekly sales against the current plan.
Why it matters
The gap is small and stable — no reason yet to reforecast top-line.
Demand
Underlying demand is firming into autumn
Weather-adjusted demand index, rebased to W1.
Source · Retail Signals · Demand overlay
What this shows
Portfolio demand once weather effects are removed.
Why it matters
Demand is quietly improving. That is what supports the current margin position.
Margin bridge
Forecast margin lands 1.4pp behind plan
Movement from plan margin to forecast margin, percentage points.
Source · Forecast v42
What this shows
Which decisions move margin between plan and forecast.
Why it matters
Womenswear promotional depth is the single largest drag. Everything else roughly offsets.
Inventory
Inventory unwinds through Q4
Projected month-end inventory value against target ceiling, £m.
Source · Forecast v42 · Inventory projection
What this shows
Month-end inventory value against the target ceiling.
Why it matters
The forecast crosses the ceiling by October — organic unwind is achievable if promotional plans hold.
Evidence
Inventory Explorer
Move from Ana's reading to the exact category, product or SKU behind it. Recommendations remain on Prompts.
Search
Commercial impact
£480,000 of working capital is currently held in outdoor overhang.
Reducing cover to the category target releases cash before the autumn buy window opens on 5 August and protects full-price margin on the incoming range.
Executive actions
What to decide next
Ana's recommended next moves for this discipline.
Approve outdoor markdown wave
Move BBQ and garden furniture to a −25% first mark this week to release working capital before the autumn buy window.
Owner
Buying Director
Horizon
this week
Rebalance womenswear denim
Move sizes 8 and 10 into the eight lowest-availability locations to close the current stockout gap.
Owner
Merchandising Director
Horizon
this week
Commit replen on loyalty exclusives
Fast-moving loyalty lines are outperforming plan; place a mid-cycle replen buy to protect availability into August.
Owner
Buying Director
Horizon
next 14 days
Related
What lives behind Inventory
The canonical business objects surfaced through this discipline.